We examine whether two commonly used indicators of bank fragility, the subordinated debt spread and KMV’s distance to default, yield signals in line with supervisors’ interests. We argue that supervisors would prefer indicators that are strictly increasing in earnings, and decreasing in...

We analyse co-movements in the fragility of EU banks and verify to which extent such co-movements have increased in time, following, for example, the completion of Monetary Union and the introduction of the euro. To this end, we provide a measure of co-movements in bank risk by means of a...

Since the second half of the ‘70s, those institutions aimed at granting the banking and financial system stability (Central Banks, Supervisory Authorities, Deposit Insurance Systems, etc.) have been employing monitoring techniques in order to evaluate the situation of banks, some of which...

We analyse the ability of the distance to default and subordinated bond spreads to signal bank fragility in a sample of EU banks. We find leading properties for both indicators. The distance to default exhibits lead times of 6-18 months. Spreads have signal value close to problems only. We also...

The aim of this paper is to verify whether and to which extent co-movements in EU banks’ risk, i.e. their degree of exposures of European banks to common shocks, have increased in time, following the completion of Monetary Union, the introduction of the euro and the process of European banking...

A paper presented at the October 2003 conference quot;Beyond Pillar 3 in International Banking Regulation: Disclosure and Market Discipline of Financial Firms,quot; cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia...

We analyse EU banks' equity market-based distances-to-default and subordinated bond spreads in the secondary market in relation to their capability of signalling a material weakening in banks' financial condition. Both indicators are demonstrated to be complete indicators of bank fragility,...

We analyse the ability to the distance-to-default and bond spreads to signal bank fragility. We show that both indicators are complete and unbiased and that spreads are non-linear in the probability of bank default. We empirically test these properties in a sample of EU banks. We find leading...

Capital account liberalization and exchange rate regime choice, what scope for flexibility in Tunisia? The adoption by Tunisia of structural reforms of its economy in a context of gradual opening since 1986, had allowed the instauration in January 1993 of the convertibility of its current...