This paper considers Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in a context where the permanent and transitory components both follow a Markov switching process. Our approach insorporates Markov switching into a single source of error state-space framework, allowing business cycle asymmetries and regime...

This paper considers Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in a context where the permanent and transitory components both follow a Markov switching process. Our approach insorporates Markov switching into a single source of error state-space framework, allowing business cycle asymmetries and regime...

This paper uses a time-varying error correction model to examine the structural changes in the rate of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium and the cointegrating vector of the US short- and long-term interest rates. We show that agents’ expectations of interest rate movements vary according...

A bivariate model that allows for both a time-varying cointegrating matrix and time-varying cointegrating rank is presented. The model addresses the issue that, in real data, the validity of a constant cointegrating relationship may be questionable. The model nests the sub-models implied by...

We estimate nonlinear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the United States. We deal with the issue of non-fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated...

We estimate hazard rates of retirement entry as a function of the option value of work. The individuals’ expectations about the future economy are incorporated in the option value of work, through which they can impact on the timing of retirement entry. In a scenario where individuals expect a...

We study the effects of a change in the way patient reimbursements are calculated on the prices of pharmaceuticals using quasi-experimental data for Denmark which switched from external (where reimbursements are based on prices of similar products in foreign countries) to internal reference...