Forecasts are routinely revised, and these revisions are often the subject of informal analysis and discussion. This paper argues (1) that forecast revisions are analyzed because they help forecasters and forecast users to evaluate forecasts and forecasting procedures, and (2) that these...

We present a 2-country model with heterogeneous agents in which changes in a country’s monetary policy affect real interest rates, relative prices of traded and nontraded goods and real exchange rates. Nontransitory real effects of monetary policy stem solely from a friction (country-specific...

2000 Annual Report Essay

As part of The Saint Paul Foundation’s Credit Card Project, three credit card issuers conducted randomized tests of whether offering online credit card education to credit cardholders is effective in changing behavior. The targeted populations were either new cardholders or cardholders...

As part of The Saint Paul Foundation’s Credit Card Project, three credit card issuers conducted randomized tests of whether offering online credit card education to credit cardholders is effective in changing behavior. The targeted populations were either new cardholders or cardholders...