Immediately after 1997 the Asian economies were viewed to be catastrophes of financial excess, corporate and political misgovernance, and diminishing returns to over-investment. But they are now freshly restored as the world’s economic powerhouses, just as before the 1997 financial crises they...

This paper explores an econometric estimation technique for dynamic linear models. The method combines the analytics of moving average solutions to dynamic models together with computational advantages of the Whittle likelihood. A hypothesis of interest to international and financial economists...

In this paper we argue that measured (RPI) inflation is conceptually mismatched with core inflation: the difference is more than just "measurement error". We propose a technique for measuring core inflation, based on an explicit long-run economic hypothesis. Core inflation is defined as that...

The convergence hypothesis has generated a huge empirical literature: this paper critically reviews some of the earlier key findings, clarifies their implications, and relates them to more recent results. Particular attention is devoted to interpreting convergence empirics. The main findings...

This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a non-stationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables the study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the United States, the leading state...

I show that the Engle-Kozicki formulation of common features--applied to international business cycles--has some surprising, counterintuitive, and, I argue, undesirable implications. Such implications can be derived only on a case-by-case basis, however, and are necessarily specific to each...

Convergence concerns poor economies catching up with rich ones. At issue is what happens to the cross-sectional distribution of economies, not whether a single economy tends towards its own steady state. It is the latter, however, that has preoccupied the traditional approach to convergence...

We review the role of R&D in endogenous growth theory, and describe extant empirical research – macro and micro – bearing on R&D as an engine of growth. Taking R&D to be key, while recognizing the significance of economic incentives, emphasizes knowledge as an economic object and, more...

This Paper studies growth and inequality in China and India – two economies that account for a third of the world’s population. By modelling growth and inequality as components in a joint stochastic process, the Paper calibrates the impact each has no different welfare indicators and on the...

Many cultural products have the same non-rival nature as scientific knowledge. They therefore face identical difficulties in creation and dissemination. One traditional view says market failure is endemic – societies tolerate monopolistic inefficiency in intellectual property (IP) protection...