Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the major forecasting controversy facing the world in the early 21st Century: namely, whether and by how much the earth is warming; and the role of climate modelling in reaching any conclusions on this challenging topic. In contrast,...

Successful ICT policy analyses and implementation rely on a sufficient knowledge of how and why consumers adopt new technologies. For instance, analysts of the digital divide may need to quantify the factors that are perceived to drive this ICT usage gap. This paper focuses on understanding the...

Aggregate models of innovation diffusion do not capitalise on valuable consumer adoption dynamics that emerge from consumer surveys. This is despite other modelling strategies which suggest that such dynamics may be very important to the process of diffusion. We present a segmental Gompertz...

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the International Journal of Forecasting. The Institute emphasizes empirical comparisons of...

An avalanche of articles has described the testing of a time series for the presence of unit roots. However, economic model builders have disagreed on the value of testing and how best to operationalise the tests. Sometimes the characterization of the series is an end in itself. More often, unit...

This article studies how adoption and usage behaviour of the Internet and online shopping, respectively influence the preference to use electronic commerce to purchase different types of products. We empirically model the preference for electronic commerce when consumers have to buy different...

In their ongoing investigation into corporate forecasting practices, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin have uncovered evidence of excessive use of judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts. In this report, they document the extent of the problem within four large companies, explore the...

Selection protocols such as Box-Jenkins, variance analysis, method switching and rules-based forecasting measure data characteristics and incorporate them in models to generate best forecasts. These protocol selection methods are judgemental in application and often select a single (aggregate)...