Thornton, Daniel L. - In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38 (2006) 2, pp. 511-542
One of the more puzzling results in the expectations hypothesis (EH) testing literature is the Campbell-Shiller paradox (CSP). In an influential paper, Campbell and Shiller (1991) found that "the slope of the term structure almost always gives a forecast in the wrong direction for the short-term...