This paper offers stochastic projections of the Central Bank of Chile’s balance sheet (stocks and flows), grounded on its present deficit situation. These projections incorporate the effect on the balance sheet of some macroeconomic variables and alternative policies, taking into consideration...

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of...

This paper develops a model that focuses on the interaction of liquidity creation by financial intermediaries with capital flows and exchange rate collapses. The intermediaries` role of transforming maturities is shown to result in larger movements of capital and a higher probability of crisis....

This paper develops simple guidelines for fiscal policy in oil producing countries, focusing on three issues: intergenerational oil distribution, precautionary saving, and adjustment costs. The paper presents a framework to analyze how the revenue generated by an exhaustible source of wealth...

This paper studies the determinants of private capital flows to developing countries during the last two episodes of large inflows, the late 1970s-early 1980s and the 1990s. The paper also tests for contagion effects in capital flows among recipient countries, and tries to identify specific...

Central banks must make policy decisions in the face of uncertainty based on imperfect and evolving knowledge about the economy. While few general results have emerged from the research on monetary policy in the face of uncertainty and learning, a key lesson is that neither uncertainty nor...

Saving rates vary considerably across countries and over time. Policies that spur development are an indirect but effective way to raise private saving rates - which rise with the level and growth rate of real per capita income.Loayza, Schmidt-Hebbel, and Serveacute;n investigate the policy and...

Replacing a pay-as-you-go pension system with a fully funded scheme could eliminate the incentives (under the pay-as-you-go system) to informalize production and employment. Simulations of an endogenous-growth model suggest that long-term growth could increase substantially by such a reform....

It is well known that a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system lowers saving, income, and welfare of future cohorts in a one-sector economy because it entails a transfer to the first cohorts of PAYG pensioners. Is the opposite result possible in a two-sector (formal-informal production) economy?...

Country experiences of old-age social security arrangements, and 15 research and policy design issues not addressed in the literature.Pension reform is spreading around the globe, from Latin America to the OECD countries, and major reform projects are being discussed in many other developing,...