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)ARCH models cannot capture this LM, long term dependence or risk persistence, because these models have finite lag lengths, while …This paper discusses various ways of measuring the persistence or Long Memory (LM) of financial market risk in both its … available in various scientific disciplines to measure the LM persistence of time series. It also discusses why Markov and (G …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012736900
This paper discusses various ways of measuring the degree of persistence or Long Memory (LM) of financial market risk … enlightening comparison of the various critical exponents available in various scientific disciplines to measure the LM persistence … of time series. It also discusses why Markov- and (G)ARCH models cannot capture this LM, long term dependence or risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771759
inverse persistence term structure in the sense that the short term interest rates show the highest persistence, while the … long term rates are closer to the GBM's neutral persistence. The simulations of the identified MMAR are compared with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077018
Estimation of bivariate fractionally cointegrated models usually operates in two steps: the first step is to estimate the long run coefficient (\beta) whereas the second step estimates the long memory parameter (d) of the cointegrating residuals. We suggest an adaptation of the maximum...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004495
This chapter builds on previous work by Bhardwaj and Swanson (2004) who address the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the “empty box” category, as discussed in Granger (1999). However, rather than focusing primarily on linear models, as do Bhardwaj and Swanson, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005750183
This paper addresses the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the "empty box" category, as discussed in Granger (1999). We present ex ante forecasting evidence based on an updated version of the absolute returns series examined by Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) that suggests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005750190
The present study compares the performance of the long memory FIGARCH model, with that of the short memory GARCH specification, in the forecasting of multi-period value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide. The dataset is composed of daily data covering the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010636498
The distributional form of financial asset returns has important implications for the theoretical and empirical analyses in economics and finance. It is now a well-established fact that financial return distributions are empirically nonstationary, both in the weak and the strong sense. One first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134704
modelling state dependence in the dynamics of the volatility process. However, their application is still limited by the severe … difficulties arising at the estimation and identification stages. In order to allow for time varying persistence in the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706195
The multifractal model of asset returns captures the volatility persistence of many financial time series. Its … Hurst exponent of slight persistence 0.5<0.7, these spectra tend to be skewed towards anti-persistence in the returns. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561749