This paper compares the relative effectiveness of inflation contracts and inflation targets in the presence of uncertainty regarding the central bank’s preferences and the underlying output target. The model explains why discretion may be superior to a delegation solution. We also show that...

In this paper, we employ total factor productivity data adjusted for factor utilisation over the cycle, to model the dynamic interaction between TFP and employment. Our data spans twenty 2-digit SIC code manufacturing sectors in the US. There are two key results. First, we show that the impact...

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the view that Taylor rules are often nonlinear due to asymmetric central bank preferences, and that the nature of these asymmetries changes across different policy regimes. The theoretical model uses a standard new Keynesian framework to...