This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply the duration model approach to estimate an eclectic model that enables us to explicitly incorporate political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate...

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The...

We propose a new test to detect chaotic dynamics, based on the stability of the largest Lyapunov exponent from different sample sizes. This test is applied to the data used in the single-blind controlled competition tests for nonlinearity and chaos that were generated by Barnett et al. (1997),...

In this paper we provide some new evidence on the credibility of the ERM. Our paper differs from the previous literature in three main respects. First, its main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of them never been applied before to all the currencies under study....