This paper evaluates potential explanations for the sometimes poor forecasting performance of the Phillips curve. One explanation is that out-of-sample metrics are noisy or, equivalently, have relatively low power. Another potential explanation is instability in the coefficients of the model. To...

We develop methods for testing whether, in a finite sample, forecasts from nested models are equally accurate. Most prior work has focused on a null of equal accuracy in population — basically, whether the additional coefficients of the larger model are zero. Our asymptotic approximation...

How should one conclude whether the data have come in stronger, weaker, or as expected?>

Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on methods for evaluating conditional forecasts. This paper...

SUMMARY This paper examines the asymptotic and finite‐sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong (Econometrica 1989; <b>57</b>: 307–333). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables...