This paper focuses on the non-linear adjustment of import prices in national currency to shocks in exchange rates and foreign prices measured in the exporters' currency of products originating outside the euro area and imported into European Union countries (EU-15). The paper looks at three...

In this paper the causes of the rise in US household debt since the early 1970s are considered, using a calibrated partial equilibrium overlapping generations model. The model explains indebtedness in terms of a consumption-income motive, associated with consumption smoothing, and a...

This paper considers the interaction between the microeconomic decisions facing households and the macroeconomic environment in a setting where households have `real-world' mortgage contracts. In particular, we consider the possible consequences of the important changes in the framework for...

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time-series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially...

Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means of improving forecast ‘accuracy’, as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the...

Simple intertemporal consumption theory implies that non-durable consumption is a random walk, but that consumption cointegrates with income and wealth. By the Granger representation theorem, there must be a (vector) error correction mechanism ((V)ECM) representation of the data; but from the...

The appreciation of sterling that began in 1996 appeared to pass through into import prices very slowly, an apparent example of incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Incomplete pass-through has typically been explained by a combination of sticky prices and pricing to market. This can have...

The Bank of England has constructed a ‘suite of statistical forecasting models’ (the ‘Suite’) providing judgement-free statistical forecasts of inflation and output growth as one of many inputs into the forecasting process, and to offer measures of relevant news in the data. The Suite...

Modern open-economy macro models emphasise pricing-to-market behaviour. It is possible that domestic pricing behaviour might be affected by import (competitors') prices, and this is a commonly used variable in empirical work on pricing. But there is theoretical ambiguity and a potential...

The methodology used in papers by Darby and Ireland and Caporale and Williams is examined, to see whether it continues to explain UK consumption behaviour. First, Muellbauer and Murphy's proxy for financial liberalisation (FLIB) is updated. Then a forward-looking consumption model is...