With seasonal adjustment one has to decide whether to seasonal adjust an aggregate like GDP directly or to sum up its seasonally adjusted components. This choice is usually driven by subjective motives or practical convenience. In the case of seasonal adjustment with chain-linked data one might...

Right from the start of the European currency union, trade imbalances could be observed in the current accounts and trade balances of the euro countries. The business cycle upswing reaching into 2008 and the strong inflow of cheap money led to a strong economic expansion especially in the...

Nowadays, modelling long-term money demand is largely unambiguous. There is a vast amount of empirical evidence concerning a cointegrating relationship between money demand, some kind of interest rate and income. In contrast to this, short-run dynamics are still opaque. In the existing...

This paper proposes a cumulative error correction model where the summing weights follow a geometrically decreasing function of prior deviations from equilibrium and are estimated from the data. It is shown that this approach is located in between the traditional error correction model – where...

The economic and financial crises in Asia and in Russia have had a marked impact on the economic development in Austria. Weaker export growth and, given the economic uncertainties, a feeble propensity to invest dampened GDP growth in the third quarter of 1998 to a low 2.7 percent on a...

In October, both industrial output and business surveys for the euro area show a marked improvement from the first half of the year. Notably for Germany and Italy, where GDP rose below the average in the first semester, indicators point to a rebound. In Austria, growth has been above the...

Die Konjunkturumfrage des WIFO zeigt eine neuerliche Eintrübung der Erwartungen für die Produktionstätigkeit in den kommenden Monaten. Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Auftragslage durch die Unternehmen hat sich jedoch gegenüber den Vormonaten kaum verändert. Die Befragung erfolgte im...

With a growth rate of 3.3 percent, Austria's economy performed well in 1998. The driving force of the economic upswing in the first half of the year was the boom in exports; in the early fall, however, export growth weakened considerably as a result of the international financial crisis. Even...

During the last few months, output in Austria's manufacturing industry expanded vigorously; in April, for the first time in many years, the number of jobs in manufacturing increased. The Asian crisis has barely impaired the business climate. At the beginning of the year, output in the...