We test for the presence of a systematic tail risk premium in the cross-section of expected returns by applying a measure on the sensitivity of assets to extreme market downturns, the tail beta. Empirically, historical tail betas help to predict the future performance of stocks under extreme...

In this study we disentangle two dimensions of banks' systemic risk: the level of bank tail risk and the linkage between a bank's tail risk and severe shocks in the financial system. We employ a measure of the systemic risk of financial institutions that can be decomposed into two subcomponents...

This paper provides a new estimation method for the marginal expected shortfall (MES) based on multivariate extreme value theory. In contrast to previous studies, the method does not assume specific dependence structure among bank equity returns and is applicable to both large and small systems....

This paper analyzes the conditions under which a financial institution is systemically important. Measuring the level of systemic importance of financial institutions, we find that size is a leading determinant confirming the usual "Too Big To Fail" argument. Nevertheless, the relation is...

The aim of this paper is to show that measures on tail dependence can be estimated in a convenient way by regression analysis. This yields the same estimates as the non-parametric method within the multivariate Extreme Value Theory framework. The advantage of the regression approach is contained...

This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of Scandinavian day-ahead electricity prices substantially in terms of point forecasts, suggesting that weather...

In the literature the effects of weather on electricity sales are well-documented. However, studies that have investigated the impact of weather on electricity prices are still scarce (e.g. Knittel and Roberts, 2005), partly because the wholesale power markets have only recently been...

This paper examines the predictive power of weather for electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. We find that next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of day-ahead electricity prices substantially, suggesting that weather forecasts can price the weather premium....

This paper investigates how the downside tail risk of stock returns is differentiated cross-sectionally. Stock returns follow heavy-tailed distributions with downside tail risk determined by the tail shape and scale. If safety-first investors are concerned with sufficiently large downside...

We analyze the cross-sectional differences in the tail risk of equity returns and identify the drivers of tail risk. We provide two statistical procedures to test the hypothesis of cross-sectional downside tail shape homogeneity. An empirical study of 230 US non-financial firms shows that...