Replaced with revised version of paper 10/23/07.

The Dixit-Pindyck model was applied to examine the hypothesis that uncertainty associated with grapefruit production costs and returns is an important determinant of Texas grapefruit growers' investment behavior. Freezes, price variability, and the effects of expanded trade were analyzed as risk...

The paper conducts an empirical investigation of the US meat demand system using quarterly data on per capita meat consumption and prices. SUR maximum likelihood is used to estimate a static and dynamic (error correction) linear almost ideal demand systems. Results compare static and dynamic...

Using Japanese economic data and a Monte Carlo simulation, this study analyzes the consequences of ignoring deterministic trends in mixed unit-root data for Granger noncausality tests. Results from an augmented VAR suggest over-rejection in certain empirically relevant cases at various sample sizes.

Two asymptotically valid out-of-sample MSE tests have been developed by Diebold-Mariano (1995) and Stock-Watson (1999). The empirical usefulness of the tests is illustrated through a U.S. wheat model estimated with fixed, recursive and rolling forecasting schemes. Bootstrap methods are adopted...

A credit scoring function incorporating statistical selection criteria was proposed to evaluate the credit worthiness of agricultural cooperative loans in the Fifth Farm Credit District. In-sample (1981-1986) and out-of-sample (1988) prediction performance of the selected models were evaluated...

This study provides empirical evidence on whether corn, sorghum, oat, barley, wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton, and peanuts exhibit cyclical patterns in their historical prices. The results of time-series analysis support a newly added counter-cyclical payment in the Farm Security and Rural...