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Exponential smoothing (ES) with ARCH (autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic) and GARCH (generalized ARCH) errors are introduced. This is done for a large class of ES methods, those for which the forecasts are obtained using a set of additive updating formulas, and also those for which an...
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The recent financial literature has been much concerned with the short-term interest rate. Several models have been proposed and studied quite extensively. Despite the number of models, relatively little is known about their empirical comparison. A first approach of this problem is proposed in...
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We present an estimation procedure for continuous time models based on discrete sampled data with a fixed unit of time between two observations. Since in general the conditional likelihood of the model cannot be derived an indirect inference procedure based on simulations of a discretized model...
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