This paper examines the hypothesis that the predictable components of U.K. shares and bonds are related to business conditions. Financial market variables, such as maturity and default premia, are constructed in an attempt to capture different components of business-conditions risk. The...

This paper specifies a two-variable system of house prices and income for N.Z., U.K. and the U.S., covering periods from 1973:4 through 2008:2. The analysis allows the identification of differences in house price-income relationships over sub-periods and, using an SVAR approach, compares the...

The seminal study by Fama and MacBeth in 1973 initiated a stream of papers testing for the cross-sectional relation between return and risk. The debate as to whether beta is a valid measure of risk was reanimated by Fama and French and subsequent studies. Rather than focusing on exogenous...

Using multiple equation Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) system estimation procedures and monthly data at the three maturity horizons of 6, 9 and 12 months, the paper explores whether conditional spreads between futures and spot rates on five contracts traded on LIFFE have a common...

Using a Markov Switching Model, the hypothesis that <italic>ex post</italic> commercial sector risk premiums have stable mean values within a time-varying framework is investigated. The probabilities of shifting expected values and the transitional probabilities of remaining in a high (low)-risk state at each...