In this paper we use a state-space model with Markov-switching to detect speculative bubbles in stock-price data. To this end we express a present-value stock-price model in state-space form which we estimate using the Kalman filter. This procedure enables us to estimate a two-regime...

In this paper we use a state-space model with Markov-switching to detect speculative bubbles in stock-price data. Our two innovations are (1) to adapt this technology to the state-space representation of a well-known present-value stock-price model, and (2) to estimate the model via...

This study investigates the impact of introducing index futures trading on the volatility of the underlying stock market. We exploit a unique institutional setting in which presumably uninformed individuals are the dominant trader type in the futures markets. This enables us to investigate the...

We analyze the dynamics of zero-coupon bond options in a situation in which the currently floating exchange rate between two countries' currencies is announced to be fixed on a given future date. To this end, we combine two strands of research that have been treated as separate issues up to...

This paper analyzes stock-price volatility in the presence of periodically collapsing Evans bubbles. We derive a volatility formula that establishes a link between the bubble component and stock-price volatility. We demonstrate how to fit the volatility equation to stock-market data.

Motivated by repeated spikes and crashes during previous decades we investigate whether the heavily financialized market for crude oil has been driven by speculative bubbles. In our theoretical modeling we draw on the convenience yield approach in order to approximate the fundamental value of...

Recent theory on exchange rate dynamics suggests that the mere announcement of regime switching from floating to fixed rates at a given future date triggers a reduction in exchange rate volatility during the interim period. Using a Markov-switching GARCH model this paper estimates the volatility...

The process of international interest rate convergence for arbitrary terms (represented by the term structure of interest rate differentials) is derived in a model of a small open economy which faces a purely time-contingent exchange rate regime switch from flexible to fixed rates. Special...

The volatility of interest rates is relevant for many financial applications. Under realistic assumptions the term structure of interest rate differentials provides an important prediction of the term structure of interest rates. This paper derives the term structure of differentials in a...

Recently a variety of exchange and interest rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. While these stochastic equilibrium models in continous time are theoretically rigorous, a systematic...