In this paper we present a multivariate analysis of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. First, we evaluate the Fed’s forecasts of the ten major expenditure categories of real GDP. Second, we present a new methodology for evaluating multivariate forecasts. Finally, we use the same methodology to...

This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts. In the past, evaluations have focused on the forecasts of individual variables. However, many macroeconomic variables are forecast at the same time and are used together to describe the state of the economy. It is,...

In the trade-off between bidding in the day-ahead electricity market and the real time balancing market, producers need good forecasts for balancing market prices to make informed decisions. A range of earlier published models for forecasting of balancing market prices, including a few...

Corruption is hidden action aimed at influencing the outcome of an event away from its competitive outcome. It is likely common in all walks of life yet its hidden nature makes it diffcult to detect, while its distortionary influence on resource allocation ensures the importance of trying to...

For short forecast horizons, we find statistical evidence that the oil price volatility observed ex post explains ex-ante disagreement between oil price forecasters of the ECB’s professional survey. Since the forecasts considered are quarterly average prices, the observed disagreement is...

This paper proposes three new panel unit root tests based on Zaykin et al. (2002)’s truncated product method. The first one assumes constant correlation between p-values and the latter two use sieve bootstrap that allows for general forms of cross-section dependence in the panel units. Monte...

This paper provides quarterly real GDP estimates for China from 1978q1-1991q4 using an unobserved component approach. The approach imposes fewer prior restrictions on related series and is more flexible than other disaggregation methods. The multivariate unobserved components model with total...

This paper presents evidence on the persistence of inflation in the United States over the period 1947- 2010. Of particular interest is whether the persistence of inflation has changed over that time period. We use a reduced form approach to measuring inflation persistence, modeling inflation as...