The threat of deflation combined with the zero lower bound on interest rates has recently been intensely debated in economics. The consequences of a deflationary recession are manifold and severe as the Japanese example demonstrates. In this paper, we focus on the potential connections between...

This article uses the monthly Wall Street Journal poll between 2002 and 2010 to analyse whether professional economic forecasters believe in and, thus, apply Taylor-type rules for their own forecasts. Using their forecasts for the Federal Funds rate, the inflation rate and capacity utilization,...

The success of monetary policy in stabilizing inflation depends substantially on its influence on expectation formation of private agents. This paper provides a novel perspective on the expectation forming process of financial markets. Using forecasts for the short-term interest rate, the...

This paper addresses the question of whether financial market participants apply the framework of Taylor-type rules in their forecasts for the G7 countries. To this end, we use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll providing us a unique data set of inflation rate, interest rate and growth rate...

The article discusses the conduct of monetary policy of the ECB during its first five years. The authors estimate different versions of the forward-looking policy rule proposed by Clarida et al. (1998, 2000). The results suggest that the ECB applied indeed a Taylor-type rule to its monetary...

This article analyses the usefulness of the quantity equation from the financial market's view. We use more than 10 000 forecasts of financial analysts concerning projections of the growth rate of money supply, prices and real output for six Central and Eastern European countries to test whether...

We use the foreign exchange forecasts of the Wall Street Journal poll to analyze forecasters' expectation formation process for the yen against the US dollar for the period 1989-2007. We also contrast the expectation formation process with the actual exchange rate process. We find that most...