It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional bivariate probit models and find strong evidence for...

The Bank’s Agents collect economic intelligence from the business community around the United Kingdom, enriching the range of information available to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The intelligence is largely qualitative, but Agents also make quantitative judgements in the form of...

Low national saving, a persistent current account deficit and the rapid expansion of balance sheets are potential reasons why the UK economy needs to rebalance. Global factors are likely to have been an important driver of these developments, but domestic factors have played an important role in...

The high level of UK inflation in recent years raises the possibility that inflation expectations may drift upwards, making the period of above-target inflation last for longer. This article presents some evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation (SOTI) episodes in...

Dwellings investment (house building and home improvements) can have a large impact on GDP growth. This article presents an economic framework that helps explain movements in UK dwellings investment. House building responded sluggishly to rising house prices in the earlier part of this decade....

In this paper, we propose a model of income dynamics which takes account of mobility both within and between jobs. The model is a hybrid of the mover-stayer model of income dynamics and a geometric random walk. In any period, individuals face a discrete probability of 'moving', in which case...

This paper derives a concept of aggregate real income for a competitive economy in general equilibrium consisting of heterogeneous infinitely lived people and relates it to current and future consumption possibilities. An important characteristic of our measure of income, which we call Real...