In this paper we compute the impact of the yield spread on output growth, based on a standard DSGE model. As it is supported by empirical literature, we found that yield spread can be used only to forecast output growth for short-term horizons (less than 2 years). Moreover, the size of that...

We evaluate the impact of persistence in volatility over the probability of default in Merton’s credit risk model. Our main conclusion is that a high degree of persistence, as it is observed in equity returns, implies a lower probability of default for those cases where firms possess a high...

In this paper we discuss various indicators of default for consumer loans in Chile. In particular, we propose an indicator based on write-offs, which can be interpreted as a probability of default. The proposed indicator replicates the level and the dynamic of the default frequency reported in a...

The discussion about the Interest Rate Ceiling (TMC) has generated several proposals that involve changing the current way of calculating this interest rate, which applies to consumer loans of amounts smaller than 200 UF and maturities of less than 90 days. In this paper we analyze the effect of...

Few, if any, of the macro stress tests undertaken before the current crisis uncovered significant vulnerabilities. This article examines the reasons for the poor performance by comparing the outcomes of simple stress tests with actual events for a large sample of historical banking crises. The...

AbstractThe following sections are included:IntroductionData and MethodologyFrequency-based filter analysisTurning-point analysisCharacterizing Cycles in Individual SeriesFrequency-based filter analysis: Short-term and medium-term cyclesTurning-point analysis: Short-term and medium-term...

We critically review the state of the art in macro stress testing, assessing its strengths and weaknesses. We argue that, given current technology, macro stress tests are ill-suited as early warning devices, ie as tools for identifying vulnerabilities during seemingly tranquil times and for...

We characterise empirically the financial cycle using two approaches: analysis of turning points and frequency-based filters. We identify the financial cycle with the medium-term component in the joint fluctuations of credit and property prices; equity prices do not fit this picture well. We...

We critically review the state of the art in macro stress testing, assessing its strengths and weaknesses. We argue that, given current technology, macro stress tests are ill-suited as early warning devices, i.e. as tools for identifying vulnerabilities during seemingly tranquil times and for...