We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is...

In this paper, we illustrate the application of Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty. The focus is on a simple projection model with the historical data representing population change in England and Wales from 1841 to 2007. The Bayesian forecasts to...

International migration data in Europe are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. As a result, reported data are inconsistent in availability, definition, and quality. In this article, we propose a Bayesian model to overcome the limitations of the various...

A methodology is developed to estimate comparable international migration flows between a set of countries. International migration flow data may be missing, reported by the sending country, reported by the receiving country or reported by both the sending and the receiving countries. For the...

The paper focuses on the uncertainty of international migration predictions, as well as on their consequences for population projections and information delivered to decision makers. One of the key questions about probabilistic population forecasting is how its outcomes – the predictive...

This book addresses from a methodological perspective a research problem, how to forecast the international migration component in a way that could be then used for population forecasts using the probabilistic approach. All forecasts are made in the conditions of uncertainty, which is an...

The aim of the paper is to present Bayesian forecasts of immigration for seven European countries to 2025, based on quantitative data and qualitative knowledge elicited from country-specific migration experts in a two-round Delphi survey. In line with earlier results, most of the immigration...