The classical Chow test for structural instability requires strictly exogenousregressors and a break-point specified in advance. In this paper, we consider twogeneralisations, the one-step recursive Chow test (based on the sequence of studentisedrecursive residuals) and its supremum counterpart,...

The classical Chow (1960) test for structural instability requires strictly exogenous regressors and a break-point specified in advance.  In this paper we consider two generalisations, the 1-step recursive Chow test (based on the sequence of studentized recursive residuals) and its supremum...

The classical Chow (1960) test for structural instability requires strictly exogenous regressors and a break-point specied in advance. In this paper we consider two generalisations, the 1-step recursive Chow test (based on the sequence of studentized recursive residuals) and its supremum...

We consider forecasting from age-period-cohort models, as well as from the extended chain-ladder model.  The parameters of these models are known only to be identified up to linear trends.  Forecasts from such models may therefore depend on arbitrary linear trends.  A condition for invariant...

An algorithm suggested by Hendry (1999) for estimation in a regression with more regressors than observations, is analyzed with the purpose of finding an estimator that is robust to outliers and structural breaks.  This estimator is an example of a one-step M-estimator based on Huber's skip...

This paper derives the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of a first-order linear autoregression with an exponential disturbance term. We also show that, even if the process is stationary, the estimator is T-consistent, where T is the sample size. In the unit root case, the...

We consider the identification problem that arises in the age-period-cohort models as well as in the extended chain-ladder model. We propose a canonical parameterization based on the accelerations of the trends in the three factors. This parameterization is exactly identified and eases...

It is well-known that convergence of Laplace transforms in a neighbourhood of the origin is a sufficient criteria for weak convergence. It is worthwhile to note that the interior of the set of convergence points is convex. This provides a link to exponential family theory. As an example an...