This paper considers the general equilibrium relationship between exchange rates and global imbalances. It emphasizes that the exchange rate is not a primitive but an equilibrium price determined by the policy mix. It uses extensions of the two-country Obstfeld-Rogoff model to analyze the...

This paper reviews the problems that must be resolved at the Intergovernmental Conference in 1996 to clear the way for European Monetary Union: locking in Germany's commitment to the project, and reconciling EMU with variable geometry. It reviews what we know about the costs and benefits of EMU...

Protracted expansionary monetary policies in advanced countries have renewed the debate over policy options to cope with large capital inflows that drive credit expansions in emerging economies. In a forthcoming paper, we show that during capital inflow bonanzas credit grows more rapidly and its...

An influential school of thought views the current international monetary and financial system as Bretton Woods reborn. Today, like 40 years ago, the international monetary system is composed of a core, which has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the currency used as international reserves,...

This paper develops a model for understanding end-user order flow in the FX market. The model addresses several puzzling findings. First, the estimated price-impact of flow from different end-user segments is, dollar-for-dollar, quite different. Second, order flow from segments traditionally...

This paper examines the relevance of the monetary approach for exchange rate behaviour in India, unde rthe managed float regime. It finds supprot for purchaisng power parity in traded goods and that the monetary approach provdies a reasonable description of exchange rate behaviour in the period...

This paper explores the idea that “Fear of Floating” and accompanying pro-cyclical interest rate policies observed in the case of some emerging market economies may be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy response to shocks. The paper also examines how the differences in...

This paper examines short-run determinants of the U.S. dollar/Malaysian ringgit (USD/MYR) exchange rate based on a simultaneous-equation model. Applying the EGARCH model, the paper finds that the USD/MYR exchange rate is positively associated with the Malaysian real government Treasury bill...

This paper examines optimal monetary policy rules in open economies with vertical production and trade in which we emphasize the role played by reference currency. As evidenced by empirical ï¬ndings, we assume ï¬nal goods prices are sticky, but intermediate goods prices are flexible. We...

This paper examines how China's exports are affected by exchange rate shocks from countries that supply intermediate inputs to China. We build a simple small open economy model with intermediate goods trade to show that due to the intra-regional trade in intermediate goods, a devaluation of...