This paper investigates the possibility that newly-emerging equity markets in Central Europe exhibit semi-strong form efficiency such that no relationship exists between lagged values of changes in economic variables and changes in equity prices. We find that while there are connections between...

An inherent problem with comparing and ranking competing Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES) models is that they measure only a single realization of the underlying data generation process. The question is whether there is any significant statistical difference in the performance of...

This paper investigates the possibility that newly emerging equity markets in Central Europe exhibit semi-strong form efficiency such that no relationship exists between lagged values of changes in economic variables and changes in equity prices. We find that such efficiency is characteristic of...

The purpose of this research is to examine the causal relationship between energy and economic growth in Croatia using data for the period from 1993 to 2006. We use a bivariate model of real GDP and five energy variables: energy consumption in industry and households, oil consumption, primary...

We investigate the relative performance of a wide array of Value at Risk (VaR) models with the daily returns of Turkish (XU100) and Croatian (CROBEX) stock index prior to and during the ongoing financial crisis. In addition to widely used VaR models, we also study the behaviour of conditional...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market...

In this paper we analyze the relative performance of 13 VaR models using daily returns of WTI, Brent, natural gas and heating oil one-month futures contracts. After obtaining VaR estimates we evaluate the statistical significance of the differences in performance of the analyzed VaR models. We...

We propose an optimisation approach for determining the optimal decay factor in time weighted (BRW) simulation. The backtesting of the BRW simulation, which involves different decay factors, together with a broad range of competing VaR models, has been performed on a sample of seven stock...