This paper examines the causes of the run up in house prices between 1998 and 2006 and the subsequent fall. It is argued that two unique factors have been at work: a true quot;bubblequot; in 2nd homes, and a fundamental expansion and now contraction of mortgage credit availability. These...

This paper examines the strong positive correlation that exists between the volume of housing sales and housing prices. We first examine gross housing flows in the US and divide sales into two categories: transactions that involve a change or choice of tenure, as opposed to owner-to-owner churn....

This paper is able to put together a data base of 86 repeat sales transactions for office properties in lower and mid town Manhattan spanning the years from 1899 through 1999. Using this very limited data base, decade-interval changes in real property prices are estimated - with varying degrees...

This empirical paper examines the question of whether movements in housing sales predict subsequent movement in house prices - or the converse. The former (positive) relationship is well hypothesized by several frictional search models of housing market transactions or quot;churnquot;. The...

This study analyzes the impact of contemporaneous loan stress on the termination of loans in the commercial mortgage-backed securities pool using a novel measure, based on changes in net operating incomes and property values at the MSA-property type-year level. Employing a semi-parametric...

This paper applies structural econometric methodology to estimating and forecasting the greater London office market. We assemble a time series covering the 1970-1995 period and estimate equations for net space absorption, movements in rents and new building orders. Together with two identities,...

This paper demonstrates that different types of real estate can have very different cyclic properties. Empirically, this is shown to be true, and the question is posed as to what might distinguish between property markets where movements are largely stable responses to repeated economic shocks...

This paper examines the inflation in housing prices between 1998 and 2005 and investigates whether this run-up in prices can be explained by increases in demand fundamentals such as population, income growth, and the decline in interest rates over this period. Time series models are estimated...

This paper examines the inflation in housing prices between 1998 and 2005 and investigates whether this run-up in prices can be quot;explainedquot; by increases in demand fundamentals such as population, income growth and the decline in interest rates over this period. We estimate time series...

In this paper we revisit the many studies that have attempted to explain the determinants of commercial real estate capitalization rates. We introduce two new innovations. First we are able to incorporate two macroeconomic factors that greatly impact cap rates besides treasury rates and local...