This paper considers identification and estimation of ceteris paribus effects of continuous regressors in nonseparable panel models with time homogeneity. The effects of interest are derivatives of the average and quantile structural functions of the model. We find that these derivatives are...

This paper gives identification and estimation results for marginal effects in nonlinear panel models. We find that linear fixed effects estimators are not consistent, due in part to marginal effects not being identified. We derive bounds for marginal effects and show that they can tighten...

Most economic analyses presume that there are limited differences in the prior beliefs of individuals, an assumption most often justified by the argument that sufficient common experiences and observations will eliminate disagreements. We investigate this claim using a simple model of Bayesian...

Suppose that a target function is monotonic and an available original estimate of this target function is not monotonic. Rearrangements, univariate and multivariate, transform the original estimate to a monotonic estimate that always lies closer in common metrics to the target function....

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has emerged as the standard tool for measuring and reporting financial market risk. Currently, more than eighty commercial vendors offer enterprise or trading risk management systems which report VaR-like measures. Risk managers are therefore often left with the daunting task...

We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions...

Fixed effects estimators of panel models can be severely biased because of the well-known incidental parameters problem. We show that this bias can be reduced by using a panel jackknife or an analytical bias correction motivated by large T. We give bias corrections for averages over the fixed...