This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis...

In this paper, we take a systematic look at global imbalances. First, we provide a definition of the phenomenon, and relate global imbalances to widening external positions of systemically important economies that reflect distortions or entail risks for the global economy. Second, we provide an...

The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...

This paper analyses the role of credit rating agencies in sovereign debt crises. Using a panel of 53 emerging and developing countries with annual data going back to 1977, the paper shows that credit ratings are not very good predictors of debt distress events once tested against a simple...

As part of the International Banking Research Network, the Banque de France contribution to the research project on liquidity risk transmission concentrates on the “outward”' transmission of shocks affecting French banking groups. Using a rich dataset on their international positions, we...

La crise financière a durablement transformé l’environnement économique mondial et stimulé de nombreuses études sur ses causes et ses canaux de transmission, qui ont été présentées lors d’une conférence organisée par la Banque de France, PSE et le FMI.

Les 8 et 9 décembre 2011, une conférence sur les politiques budgétaire et monétaire à la suite de la crise financière a été organisée à Paris par la Banque de France en collaboration avec la Paris School of Economics, le Euro Area Business Cycle Network et The Economic Journal. Elle a...

The financial crisis lastingly transformed the global economic environment and raised much debate as to its causes and transmission channels. This conference, organised by the Banque de France, PSE and the IMF, provided an arena to present and discuss these issues.

This paper estimates export and import price equations for 40 countries – including 19 emerging market economies (EMEs) – and aims to understand heterogeneity across countries in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import and to export prices. Results indicate that (i) the...

Based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries, this paper addresses the question whether the accumulation of international reserves has effectively protected countries during the 2008-09 financial crisis. More specifically, the paper investigates the relation between...