Practically all organizations seek to create value by selecting and executing portfolios of actions that consume resources. Typically, the resulting value is uncertain, and thus organizations must take decisions based on ex ante estimates about what this future value will be. In this paper, we...

In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise 'Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges' which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors. This exercise...

Continuing attempts to align science and technology policies with industrial and societal needs have aroused interest in the determination of research priorities. In this paper, we report a case study where leading experts from industry and public administration were assisted by multicriteria...

Decisions about the acquisition and maintenance of military equipment serve to build long-term capabilities in preparation of military conflicts. Typically, these decisions involve large investments which need to be supported by adequate cost-efficiency analyses. Yet the cost-efficiency analysis...

In the selection of investment projects, it is important to account for exogenous uncertainties (such as macroeconomic developments) which may impact the performance of projects. These uncertainties can be addressed by examining how the projects perform across several scenarios; but it may be...

Robust portfolio modeling (RPM) [Liesiö, J., Mild, P., Salo, A., 2007. Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection. European Journal of Operational Research 181, 1488-1505] supports project portfolio selection in the presence of multiple evaluation criteria and...

A key issue in applying multi-attribute project portfolio models is specifying the baseline value – a parameter which defines how valuable not implementing a project is relative to the range of possible project values. In this paper we present novel baseline value specification techniques...