This paper proposes a technique to decompose short-run fluctuations in the terms of trade. Using Ethiopia as an example, we decompose the commodity terms of trade into various components to measure the impact of price and volume shifts as well as export diversification. We use monthly data from...

Global commodity prices have been on an increasing trend since 2009, while their correlation with stock prices has risen. This paper attempts to identify the main causes of fluctuations in global commodity markets, by using the historical decomposition of VAR models. It then provides...

Window guidance is considered an important instrument of monetary policy by Chinese monetary authorities. Since the middle of 2009, window guidance has been strengthened in response to their fast growing economy and rising real estate prices, leading to the current slowdown in loan growth....

This article proposes a technique to decompose short-run fluctuations in the terms of trade. Using Ethiopia as an example, we decompose the commodity terms of trade into various components to measure the impact of price and volume shifts as well as export diversification. We use monthly data...

Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of...

During the global food crisis, Ethiopia experienced an unprecedented increase in inflation, among the highest in Africa. Using monthly data over the past decade, we estimate models of inflation to identify the importance of the factors contributing to CPI inflation and three of its major...

We estimate pass-through effects of international food price movements into domestic food prices for 18 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, using threshold regressions. International price movements transmit to various degrees into domestic prices. Transmission is mostly asymmetric,...

Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data over the past decade, we estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several...

Loening investigates the impact of human capital on economic growth in Guatemala during 1951-2002 using an error-correction methodology. The results show a better-educated labor force having a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Consistent with microeconomic studies for...

This paper analyzes characteristics of nonfarm enterprises, their employment growth patterns, and constraints in doing business in rural Tanzania. Using unique survey data, the authors describe a low-return sector struggling to compete in a difficult business environment. However, about...