MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for policy simulations and short-term forecasting. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and...

MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for short-term forecasting and policy simulations. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and...

The paper investigates explanations for forecasting invariance to structural breaks. After highlighting the role of policy, we isolate possible structural invariance in a simplified dynamic macro model that nevertheless has features in common with the standard model of aggregate demand and...

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear di.erence equations.We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses ‘Euroland’ and US data. The debate has been centered around the...

Estimates of the NAIRU are usually derived either from a Phillips curve or from a wage curve. This paper investigates the correspondence between the operational NAIRU concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage-price model. We derive the parameter restrictions that secure that...

Several features of the U.S. natural rate of unemployment are reconsidered through specification and testing of econometric models. Traditionally, the choice has been between a wage Phillips curve model, PCM, or an equilibrium correction wage curve model, WECM. The models proposed in this paper...