Many people delay joining a pension plan until well into their working lives. We use a stochastic simulation model to show the cost of this delay in terms of the higher pension contributions that must eventually be paid to ensure an adequate retirement income. We find the levels of contributions...

This paper uses mortality fan charts to illustrate prospective future male mortality. These fan charts show both the most likely path of male mortality and the bands of uncertainty surrounding that path. The fan charts are based on a model of male mortality that is known to provide a good fit to...

We investigate the uncertainty of forecasts of future mortality generated by a number of previously proposed stochastic mortality models. We specify fully the stochastic structure of the models to enable them to generate forecasts. Mortality fan charts are then used to compare and contrast the...

This paper examines the impact of interest-rate risk and longevity risk on the distribution of annuity prices in the distant future. To so, the paper uses a computationally efficient algorithm that simulates the state variables out to the end of the horizon period and then uses a Taylor series...

We analyse the range of default funds offered by UK stakeholder pension schemes, against the background of research that shows the majority of pension scheme members passively accept the default arrangements offered by the scheme sponsor. We find the default funds vary substantially in their...

This article uses longevity fan charts to represent the uncertainty in projections of future life expectancy. These fan charts are based on a mortality model calibrated on mortality data for English and Welsh males. The fan charts indicate strong upward sloping trends in future life expectancy....

We discuss Bayesian modelling of the delay between dates of diagnosis and settlement of claims in Critical Illness Insurance using a Burr distribution. The data are supplied by the UK Continuous Mortality Investigation and relate to claims settled in the years 1999–2005. There are non-recorded...

The valuation and hedging of participating life insurance policies, also known as with-profits policies, is considered. Such policies can be seen as European path-dependent contingent claims whose underlying security is the investment portfolio of the insurance company that sold the policy. The...