We propose a new Markov switching model with time varying probabilities for the transitions. The novelty of our model is that the transition probabilities evolve over time by means of an observation driven model. The innovation of the time varying probability is generated by the score of the...

We propose a new model for dynamic volatilities and correlations of skewed and heavy-tailed data. Our model endows the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution with time-varying parameters driven by the score of the observation density function. The key novelty in our approach is the fact that the...

We describe stationarity and ergodicity (SE) regions for a recently proposed class of score driven dynamic correlation models. These models have important applications in empirical work. The regions are derived from sufficiency conditions in Bougerol (1993) and take a non-standard form. We show...

The purpose of the paper is twofold. Firstly, we test the validity of the PPP hypothesis for selected CEEC (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic). Secondly, we attempt to define those countries’ trade linkages between Euro Area, US and the rest of the world. By applying...

Recent studies of climate anomalies have highlghted an apparent upward trend at the surface and the relevance absence of such a trend in the troposhere, which conflicts with predictions from climate models. Time series estimation methods are used to evaluate linear and piecewise-linear trends in...

This paper presents some evidence that long-run modeling of real exchange rates should take into account both monetary and real factors. In particular, we show that long-run movements of the dollar-yen and dollar-mark real exchange rates are well described by a cointegrating relationship which...

The present paper seeks to cast scepticism on the validity and value of the results of all earlier studies in India on energy demand analysis and forecasting based on time series regression, on three grounds. (i) As these studies did not care for model adequacy diagnostic checking, indispensably...

In order to obtain exact distributional results without imposing restrictive parametric assumptions, various rank counterparts of the Dickey-Fuller statistic are considered. In particular, a rank counterpart of the score statistic is suggested which appears to have attractive theoretical...

In this paper I describe and apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) to an experimental framework. The idea behing STSA is simple: the values of a given time series data are transformed into a finite set of symbols obtaining a finite string.

This paper This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a long-run level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend- or first-difference stationary. The...