We examine the performance and robustness of monetary policy rules when the central bank and the public have imperfect knowledge of the economy and continuously update their estimates of model parameters. We find that versions of the Taylor rule calibrated to perform well under rational...

This study offers a historical review of the monetary policy reform of October 6, 1979, and discusses the influences behind it and its significance. We lay out the record from the start of 1979 through the spring of 1980, relying almost exclusively upon contemporaneous sources, including the...

This study examines the usefulness of the Taylor-rule famework as an organizing device for describing the policy debate and evolution of monetary policy in the United States. Monetary policy during the 1920s and since the 1951 Treasury - Federal Reserve Accord can be broadly interpreted in terms...

Nearly a quarter-century after Paul Volcker's declaration of war on inflation on October 6, 1979, Alan Greenspan declared that the goal had been achieved. Drawing on the extensive historical record, I examine the views of Chairmen Volcker and Greenspan on some aspects of the evolving monetary...

The estimation of dynamic no-arbitrage term structure models with a flexible specification of the market price of risk is beset by a severe small-sample problem arising from the highly persistent nature of interest rates. We propose using survey forecasts of a short-term interest rate as...

This paper examines the role of compensation contracts in determining risk taking decisions by money managers in the financial industry. A methodology is developed for empirically testing and assessing the magnitude of the effect that incentive contracts have on risk taking in the mutual fund...

The importance of a firm's balance sheet for determining its investment and employment decisions is the central assumption of macroeconomic models of quot;debt deflationquot; or quot;debt overhang.quot; According to these models, firm investment decisions are influenced not only by the...

The postponement of a reform program recognized to be necessary to control inflation is examined as a decision in an optimal control framework. With a deteriorating and increasingly costlier inflation, it is found that reforms are both more likely to be implemented and more likely to fail as...

This paper examines the implications of family size heterogeneity for Ricardian households and employs survey data to determine whether or not individual household preferences towards taxation conform to the Ricardian model. Using a dynastic model of intergenerational linkages, we show that the...