Growth in emerging market economies (EMEs) is set to durably slow from the rates observed over 2010-12 as cyclical effects fade, potential growth declines and external financing conditions tighten. Large negative current account balances make some EMEs vulnerable to sudden reversals in capital...

Recent episodes of large exchange rate movements, such as for Japan or the United Kingdom, have typically not been associated with large changes in trade balances and despite the polarisation of international investment positions large currency fluctuations during the global crisis of 2008-09...

After peaking in the first half of 2008, international imbalances declined sharply during the global crisis of 2008-09, in part reflecting cyclical factors such as large contractions in domestic demand on the back of bursting housing bubbles in a number of deficit countries, as well as large...

This paper examines the per capita income convergence process among 23 Argentinean provinces over the period 1983-2002. The purpose of this work is to apply new estimation methods following two-step procedure as in Badinger et al. (2004). We combine a spatial filtering of variables to remove the...

Potential output losses from the global financial crisis are estimated by comparing recent OECD published projections with a counter-factual assuming a continuation of pre-crisis productivity trends and a trend employment rate which is sensitive to demographic trends. Among the 19 OECD countries...

This paper examines the per capita income convergence process among 23 Argentinian provinces over the period 1983-2002. The purpose of this work is to apply new estimation methods following two-step procedure as in Badinger et al. (2004). We combine a spatial filtering of variables to remove the...

Le déficit de balance courante des États-Unis a récemment atteint son plus haut niveau historique – environ 5.2 pour cent du PIB – et, même s’il a légèrement baissé depuis, reste très élevé au regard de l’expérience passée (graphique 1). Un déficit de cette ampleur pour une...

This article uses the OECD’s interlink model to explore several possible channels through which a narrowing of the US current account deficit could occur. The shocks considered include dollar depreciation, fiscal consolidation, and an improvement in the non-price competitiveness of US...

The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance...

The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper...