This paper quantifies the importance of different determinants of trade at the industry level using a sample of 54 OECD and non-OECD economies. The empirical methodology extends the approach of previous empirical studies to explicitly quantify the impact that trading partners’ factor...

This report presents descriptive evidence of specialisation trends and investigates empirically their causes and consequences, analysing the role of policies in this process. Then, based on the insights from the backward looking analysis, it draws global trade and specialisation scenarios up to...

This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the...

Policymakers and academics often associate large capital inflows with booms in asset prices. To date, however, methodical evidence of this association is still limited. This paper provides a systematic empirical analysis of the link between capital inflows and booms in asset prices. Using a...

This paper analyzes the recent evolution and the level of international reserves in Chile using complementary approaches. First, we construct a set of international reserves indicators suggested by the literature for a group of developed and emerging economies. Second, we estimate a demand for...

Booms in house prices are leading indicators of financial crises. Therefore, understanding their causes is a key policy objective. Although theory suggests that large capital inflows are main factors behind these booms, empirical evidence about their association is still needed. This paper...

Despite the tremendous human suffering caused by natural disasters, their effects on economic growth remain unclear, with some studies reporting negative, and others indicating no or even positive effects. To reconcile these seemingly contradictory findings reported in the literature, this study...

This paper analyzes the recent evolution and the actual level of international reserves in Chile using complementary approaches. First, we compare the current level of international reserves of Chile with other countries, using as controls a set of indicators that are traditionally used in the...

In 2013 the Mexican government embarked on a major reform agenda which, if fully implemented and pushed forward, will help Mexico break out from a recent history of economic stagnation and high levels of poverty and inequality that has hampered the quality of life of its citizens. Indeed,...