In this paper we suggest a methodology to predict commodity specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and in quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are three driving forces of the transport flows dynamics:...

Die möglichst präzise und vor allem zutreffende Vorhersage unsicherer zukünftiger Ereignisse ist eine permanente Herausforderung für Unternehmen. Prognosemärkte adressieren diese Aufgabe, indem sie relevante Informationen aufdecken, bewerten und aggregieren. Mit diesem Bericht leisten wir...

The paper examines the impact of communication cost reductions on growth and welfare by means of an endogenous spatial growth model. Policy makers having to decide upon transport policies often claim certain policies such as infrastructure investments to have growth stimulating effects that...

The paper examines the impact of communication-cost reductions on growth and welfare by means of an endogenous spatial growth model. Policy makers favouring certain infrastructure investments often claim that such projects have growth-stimulating effects that generate ‘wider impacts’ in...

This paper estimates welfare effects resulting from reduced transaction costs in international trade, using a static multiregional general equilibrium model. The kernel of the model is the trade part specified in Dixit-Stiglitz-style. Interregional trade shows a gravity pattern due to...