We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...

We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...

We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectationformation process in the US stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as...

This article analyses the usefulness of the quantity equation from the financial market's view. We use more than 10 000 forecasts of financial analysts concerning projections of the growth rate of money supply, prices and real output for six Central and Eastern European countries to test whether...

In this paper, we contrast more than 6,000 private sector forecasts to projections of the German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverstaendigenrat). Although the forecasts are submitted simultaneously, we find that the Council’s real economy forecasts, i. e. their growth, unemployment and...

We investigate the impact of fiscal variables on bond yield spreads relative to US Treasury bonds in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey from May 1998 to December 2007. To account for the importance of market expectations we use projected values for fiscal and macroeconomic...

Taylor (1994, 1995) [Taylor, M.P., 1994. Exchange rate behaviour under alternative exchange rate regimes. In: Kenen, P. (Ed.), Understanding Interdependence: The Macroeconomics of the Open Economy. Princeton University Press, Princeton; Taylor, M.P., 1995. The economics of exchange rates....

This article investigates whether there exists a consensus among foreign exchange rate forecasters. The data set under consideration is the semi-annual survey of the Wall Street Journal . In most of all cases we find evidence in favor of a consensus. However, in a few cases, no-consensus is...

In this paper a two country new open economy macroeconomics model is applied to analyze both the short-run and the steady state macroeconomic effects of protection. Similar to the traditional Mundell Fleming approach we find that the imposition of a permanent tariff entails a demand diversion...