The Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting is outlined, discussed and improved utilizing standard time series approaches. The new framework, which integrates estimation and forecasting, delivers more robust results and permits more detailed insight into underlying mortality dynamics. An...

When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and interpretable...

This paper describes the design of a dynamic microsimulation model being built as part of the DYNOPTA (Dynamic Analyses to Optimize Ageing) Project. The model aims to establish a demographic modelling infrastructure to simulate the health outcomes of Australia's baby boomer and aged cohorts and...

When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for non-divergent or coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and...