We consider two formulations of the linear factor model (LFM) with nontraded factors. In the first formulation, LFM, risk premia and alphas are estimated by a cross-sectional regression of average returns on betas. In the second formulation, LFM*, the factors are replaced by their projections on...

We show that in misspecified models with useless factors (for example, factors that are independent of the returns on the test assets), the standard inference procedures tend to erroneously conclude, with high probability, that these irrelevant factors are priced and the restrictions of the...

In this article, we examine the limiting behavior of generalized method of moments (GMM) sample moment conditions and point out an important discontinuity that arises in their asymptotic distribution. We show that the part of the scaled sample moment conditions that gives rise to degeneracy in...

This paper studies some seemingly anomalous results that arise in possibly misspecified and unidentified linear asset-pricing models estimated by maximum likelihood and one-step generalized method of moments (GMM). Strikingly, when useless factors (that is, factors that are independent of the...

Since Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) and Fama and MacBeth (1973), the two-pass cross-sectional regression (CSR) methodology has become the most popular approach for estimating and testing asset pricing models. Statistical inference with this method is typically conducted under the assumption...

The notion that financial asset returns are predictors of future economic activity is widespread, but detailed analyses provide little support for financial markets’ ability to reveal future economic activity. Even though the evidence on various indicators used by different researchers is...

The risk premia of linear factor models on economic (non-traded) risk factors can be decomposed into: i) the premium on maximum-correlation portfolios mimicking the factors; ii) (minus) the covariance between the non-traded components of the pricing kernel and the factors; and iii) (minus) the...

This paper offers a novel way of testing whether prespecified risk variables command significant risk premia. Specifically, we construct portfolios of securities to mimick the variation in the chosen risk variables, and we estimate the conditional and unconditional expected returns on these...

In this paper, we discuss the impact of different formulations of asset pricing models on the outcome of specification tests that are performed using excess returns. We point out that the popular way of specifying the stochastic discount factor (SDF) as a linear function of the factors is...

We provide an in-depth analysis of the theoretical properties of the Hansen-Jagannathan (HJ) distance that incorporates a no-arbitrage constraint. Under a multivariate elliptical distribution assumption, we present explicit expressions for the HJ-distance with a no-arbitrage constraint, the...