Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out...

Historical evidence shows that demographic forecasts, including mortality forecasts, have often been grossly in error. One consequence of this is that forecasts are updated frequently. How should individuals or institutions react to updates, given that these are likewise expected to be...

Future improvements in mortality are difficult to forecast. In this paper, we incorporate uncertainty about future mortality, or aggregate mortality risk, into an otherwise standard life cycle model with an intertemporal consumption-savings decision. The aggregate mortality process is calibrated...

The measurement of nuptiality rates is complicated by the fact that a marriage can be attributed both to the woman and the man involved. This is an example of the so called two-sex problem of mathematical demography. Several theoretical solutions have been proposed, but none has found universal...

The estimation of the mortality of the “oldest old”; is subject to considerable random error, but important prior information exists that can be used to make the estimates more robust. Mixed estimation is a method of incorporating auxiliary information into the statistical estimation of...