To identify disruptions in credit markets, research on the role of asset prices in economic fluctuations has focused on the information content of various corporate credit spreads. We re-examine this evidence using a broad array of credit spreads constructed directly from the secondary bond...

We develop a small open economy macroeconomic model where financial conditions influence aggregate behavior. We use this model to explore the connection between the exchange rate regime and financial distress. Fixed exchange rates are shown to exacerbate financial crises. Quantitative exercises...

Building on recent developments in behavioral asset pricing, we develop a model in which an increase in the dispersion of investor beliefs under short-selling constraints predicts a bubble, or a rise in a stock's price above its fundamental value. Our model predicts that managers respond to...

Adverse shocks to the economy may be amplified by worsening credit-market conditions--the quot;financial accelerator.quot; Theoretically, we interpret the financial accelerator as resulting from endogenous changes over the business cycle in the agency costs of lending. An implication of the...

This paper compares the effects of conventional monetary policy on real borrowing costs with those of the unconventional measures employed after the target federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound (ZLB). For the ZLB period, we identify two policy surprises: changes in the two-year Treasury...

The depth and duration of the 2007–09 recession serves as a powerful reminder of the real consequences of financial shocks. Although channels through which disruptions in financial markets can affect economic activity are relatively well understood from a theoretical perspective, assessing...