Through the analysis of the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports on 12 US traded agricultural commodities, we revisit the heated debate on the impact of index flows on commodities prices. After introducing a novel stock-to-use proxy that may be used to represent inventory...

There is an important information deficit on political and financial risks in Africa. This paper fills this gap by compiling a unique database of financial (sovereign, banking, currency, expropriation) and political crises (regime changes, ethnic and revolutionary wars, genocides, armed...

The role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by Kaldor [Kaldor, N. (1939) "Speculation and Economic Stability", The Review of Economic Studies 7, 1-27] and Working [Working, H....

The goal of this paper is to present a model for the joint evolution of correlated commodity forward curves. Each forward curve is directed by two state variables, namely slope and level, and the model is meant to capture both the local and global dependence structures between slopes and levels....

We address the problem of managing a storable commodity portfolio, that includes physical assets and positions in spot and forward markets. The vast amount of capital involved in the acquisition of a power plant or storage facility implies that the financing period stretches over a period of...