This paper investigates the predictive power for the future domestic economic activity included in the domestic stock prices, using a Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. We are able to evaluate whether the predictive power is concentrated at the slowly fluctuating components or...

Valuing customers is a central issue for any commercial activity. The customer lifetime value (CLV) is the discounted value of the future profits that this customer yields to the company. In order to compute the CLV, one needs to predict the future number of transactions a customer will make and...

Opening, lunch and closing of financial markets induce a periodic component in the volatility of high-frequency returns. We show that price jumps cause a large bias in the classical periodicity estimators and propose robust alternatives. We find that accounting for periodicity greatly improves...

In biostatistical practice, it is common to use information criteria as a guide for model selection. We propose new versions of the Focussed Information Criterion (FIC) for variable selection in logistic regression. The FIC gives, depending on the quantity to be estimated, possibly different...

Modied Value at Risk (VaR) is an estimator of VaR based on the Cornish-Fisher expansion. It is fast to compute and reliable for non-normal returns. In this paper, we introduce modified Expected Shortfall as a new analytical estimator for Expected Shortfall (ES), another popular measure of...

Quadratic covariation is a popular descriptive measure for the volatility of a multivariate price process. It is consistently estimated by the sum of outer products of high-frequency returns.The proposed Realized Outlyingness Weighted Covariation (ROWCov) is a \emph{weighted} sum of outer...

Valuing customers is a central issue for any commercial activity. The customer lifetime value (CLV) is the discounted value of the future profits that this customer yields to the company. In order to compute the CLV, one needs to predict the future number of transactions a customer will make and...

A robust principal component analysis can be easily performed by computing the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a robust estimator of the covariance or correlation matrix. In this paper the authors derive the influence functions and the corresponding asumptotic variances for these robust...

The minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD) scatter estimator is a highly robust estimator for the dispersion matrix of a multivariate, elliptically symmetric distribution. It is fast to compute and intuitively appealing. In this note we derive its influence function and compute the asymptotic...