This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict...

Consider an economy in which the underlying security returns follow a linear factor model with constant coeffcients. While portfolios that invest in these securities willin general, have a linear factor structure, it will be one with time-varying coeffcients. However, under certain assumptions...

This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict...

This article develops a Kalman filter model to track dynamic mutual fund factor loadings. It then uses the estimates to analyze whether managers with market-timing ability can be identified ex ante. The primary findings are as follows: (i) Ordinary least squares (OLS) timing models produce false...

With the people's lives improving, the demands of livestock products on the import and export aspects were growing. Veterinary drug residues as the important factor which might influence animal products safety has become a major concern. In this paper, the status quo and inspection of the...

The quantity of some resources is limited because of project cost constraints. These resources may be required by multiple activities simultaneously during a construction process. In a discrete simulation that models the construction process, tracing and controlling such entities, e.g....

Recently, in both marketing theory (academia) and practice (industry), the emphasis in relationship marketing has shifted to long term customer relationship management emphasizing customer retention or loyalty. This study has two main purposes: (1) to investigate the impacts of selected...

To examine the impact of trade barrier reductions on the Chinese economy following its WTO accession, a single-country, static CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is constructed, which incorporates certain elements of imperfect competition in China's current economic situation. China's...