Our study presents the top-down stress testing framework currently used by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. We run separate solvency and liquidity stress tests to analyse the ability of the banking system to absorb shocks and we present their results in our Report on Financial Stability. In the former,...

This paper focuses on analyzing the cash supply network, in which the central bank – as an institutional member – acts as a key influencing node/party. By analyzing the case study example of the Hungarian cash supply, the paper introduces the different kinds of special network patterns that...

In this study, a system-wide financial stress index (SWFSI) for the Hungarian financial system is developed. The indicator measures the joint stress level of the Hungarian financial system’s main segments: the spot foreign exchange market, the foreign exchange swap market, the secondary market...

MNB has received daily, transaction-level data on key Hungarian interest rate derivatives markets since the beginning of 2009 with the launching of the K14 report. The dataset that has accumulated since early 2009 provides an opportunity to better comprehend the structure and functioning of...

In this paper we apply the Early Warning System methodology to ten Central and Eastern European Countries to find useful sets of indicators which could predict macroeconomic and financial imbalances. We argue that finding such indicators is crucial in the current monetary policy framework...

We present a new general-equilibrium behavioural microsimulation model designed to assess long-run macroeconomic and fiscal consequences of reforms to the tax and transfer system. General-equilibrium feedback effects are simulated by embedding microsimulation in a parsimonious macro model of a...

We show that in both time-dependent and state-dependent sticky price models, prices of sticky price products (i.e. whose price changes rarely) contain more information about medium term inflation developments than those of flexible price products (i.e. whose price changes frequently). We do this...

This paper uses a structural factor model to analyze sectoral heterogeneity in the impact of monetary policy in Hungary. Monetary shocks are identified with sign restrictions. The impulse responses of aggregate variables are similar to the findings of previous VAR based studies. The sectoral...

This paper presents a variance decomposition method - factor analysis with Procrustes rotation - that is capable of separating the global, regional and idiosyncratic components of various financial market indicators. The method is applied to indicators of five key financial markets: sovereign...

The paper investigates the impact of foreign currency lending in the Hungarian corporate sector on real investment. Using a rich micro dataset we consider two questions. First we test whether foreign currency (FX) lending – by lowering user cost and easing liquidity constraints – contributed...