We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure for financial companies’ contribution to systemic risk given network interdependence between firms’ tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we...

We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and...

We introduce a methodology for measuring default risk connectedness that is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. The out-of-sample nature of the procedure leads to \realized" measures which, in practice, respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than those...

We study a general class of semiparametric estimators when the innite-dimensional nuisance parameters include a conditional expectation function that has been estimated nonparametri- cally using generated covariates. Such estimators are used frequently to e.g. estimate nonlinear models with...

In practice, multivariate dependencies between extreme risks are often only assessed in a pairwise way. We propose a test to detect when tail dependence is truly high{dimensional and bivariate simplications would produce misleading results. This occurs when a signicant portion of the...

In many applications, covariates are not observed but have to be estimated from data. We outline some regression-type models where such a situation occurs and discuss estimation of the regression function in this context.We review theoretical results on how asymptotic properties of nonparametric...

We give an overview over smooth backtting type estimators in additive models. Moreover we il- lustrate their wide applicability in models closely related to additive models such as nonparametric regression with dependent error variables where the errors can be transformed to white noise by a...

Using a Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model (DSFM) we investigate the term structure of interest rates. The proposed methodology is applied to monthly interest rates for four southern European countries: Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain from the introduction of the Euro to the recent European...

Standard fixed symmetric kernel type density estimators are known to encounter problems for positive random variables with a large probability mass close to zero. We show that in such settings, alternatives of asymmetric gamma kernel estimators are superior but also differ in asymptotic and...

In this paper, we study a general class of semiparametric optimization estimators of a vector-valued parameter. The criterion function depends on two types of innite-dimensional nuisance parameters: a conditional expectation function that has been estimated nonparametrically using generated...