In this paper we intend to identify and analyze, if it is the case, an “epidemiological” relationship between forecasts of professional investors and short-term developments in the EUR/RON exchange rate. Even that we don’t call a typical epidemiological model as those ones used in biology...

The concept of conditional probability is fundamental because econometrics regression models are probabilistic. Here, we consider the conditional probabilities to a certain vector, which would be possible to define more generally to the standard deviation ?.