We propose to strengthen Popper's notion of falsifiability by adding the requirement that when an observation is inconsistent with a theory, there must be a "short proof" of this inconsistency. We model the concept of a short proof using tools from computational complexity, and provide some...

This paper describes a general principle that can be used to elicit honest opinions, even if risk attitudes are unknown. JEL Classification: D83

A player's strategy, for an n-person infinitely repeated game with discounting, is subjectively rational if it is a best response to his individual beliefs regarding opponents' strategies. A vector of such strategies is a subjective equilibrium if the play induced by it is realization equivalent...

Consider a general finite-state stochastic process governed by an unknown objective probability distribution. Observing the system, a forecaster assigns subjective probabilities to future states. The resulting subjective forecast merges to the objective distribution if, with time, the forecasted...

In joint decision making, people with common goals and similar preferences often take drastically opposing positions. In some cases, arbitrarily small discrepancies in preferences result in arbitrarily large losses in utility for all participants. An understanding of the properties of...